The Crazy World Of Football

Why go for difficult prediction when you can do it easy?

OK, I have received some criticism that my predictions has all been easy ones thus allowing me to have a high accuracy rate. Now, I don't really understand this. Why go for difficult gamble and run a higher chance of losing your money? Going for difficult guess will usually yield better returns of course, an example, if you go for the final score or home/away each half result. They probably give you a return between 3 to 10 times but think about it. The higher the return, the higher percentage of luck will need to be present for you to win, which means the amount of (prediction)skill involved is lesser.

So, in my opinion, skill composite is at its highest in a guess when the returns are between 100% to 200%. Meaning, if you get it correct, you win at least the same amount of money you placed. For me, I focus on bets that has 100% returns. I believe this is for me the right percentile that with a good high prediction accuracy, I can win good money also.

9 out of 10 wins in 100% return game is better than 4 out of 10 wins in 300% game. Assuming you place $100 for each game, your return for the first type of gambling is $800($900-$100). The 2nd will give you only $600($1200-$600). Of course, if your win rate can be better than 4 for a 300% return game, good for you. Then, I will really encourage you to concentrate on 300% return games. But for me, a high 100% return is good enough.

Any other comments or suggestions will be welcome. We should share our experience.

posted by PengSoon @ 6:39 AM